The comparison between last year's incredibly warm spring and this year's very chilly spring has been made repeatedly. Thanks to Chase McNulty of Downers Grove for sending us identical shots taken last March 31 and this March 31. The pictures clearly tell the story of the Tale of Two Springs.
Warm Spring 2012
Chilly spring 2013
Photos courtesy of Chase McNulty
Issued by the Chicago National Weather Service Office
Northeast Illinois/northwest Indiana
10pm Sunday evening
Location snowfall (inches)
WINNEBAGO 2.5
MARSEILLES 0.2
ROCKFORD 2.0
MIDWAY AIRPORT 0.4
MARENGO 0.3
BYRON 2.0
OTTAWA 1.3
WATSEKA 3.0
DE KALB 0.4
STREATOR 1.0
LOWELL, IN 0.5
GIBSON CITY 4.1
ROSCOE 2.0
CHATSWORTH 3.5
CROWN POINT, IN 0.2
JOLIET 0.4
WHEATFIELD, IN 2.0
KANKAKEE 1.3
CAPRON 1.0
MANTENO 1.5
As of late Sunday afternoon the center of lowest pressure was near Lexington, Kentucky and moving east. The heaviest snowfall had occurred northwest of the low center over the southern and central portions of Illinois and Indiana. Across downstate Illinois the following snowfall reports had been received as of 6pm…
Location Snowfall (inches)
Jerseyville (Jersey Co) 12.5
New Haven (Franklin Co) 10.0
Berlin (Sangamon Co) 10.0
Sherman (Sangamon Co) 9.8
Alton (Madison Co) 9.5
Winchester (Scott Co) 9.0
Tuscola (Douglas Co) 9.0
St. Clair (Franklin Co) 8.1
Bethalto (Madison Co) 8.0
Mt. Zion (Macon Co) 8.0
Belleville (St. Clair Co) 7.1
Lincoln (Logan) 7.0
Ramsay (Fayette Co) 7.0
Riverton (Sangamon) 6.7
Champaign (Champ Co) 6.5
Savoy (Champaign Co) 6.0
Macomb (McDonough) 5.1
Altona (Knox Co) 4.7
Peoria (Peoria Co) 4.3
Danville (Vermillion Co) 4.0
Roseville (Warren Co) 4.0
Many location less than 4 inches…
An intensifying center of low pressure will track out of Arkansas through Kentucky today spreading snow to the north over much of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana into southern Ohio and Pennsylvania into West Virginia. The immediate Chicago area is expected to receive about an inch of snow with this storm, although strong northeast winds could cause lake-effect snow showers and an additional inch or two accumulations near Lake Michigan later tonight into Monday.
The band of heaviest 6 to 10-inch snowfall will occur out of Missouri across central and southern portions of Illinois and Indiana as depicted in the pink areas on the National Weather Service map below. This Winter Storm Warning for this afternoon and tonight into early Monday includes Iroquois and Ford Counties in Illinois and Benton County Indiana.
The Winter Weather Advisory areas (depicted in purple) for 3 to 5 inches of snow this afternoon and tonight into early Monday include Livingston and Kankakee Counties in Illinois and Newton and Jasper counties in Indiana.
Man/computer mix probabilty forecasts of heavy snow projections for next 24 hours...
Chances of 4 inches or more
Chances of 8-inches or more
As the center of intensifying low pressure moves out of the Texas Panhandle northeast along the Ohio River Valley Sunday, snow will spread over the area to its north – including a good portion of Illinois and Indiana. A Winter Storm Warning for as much as 6 inches of snow is effect for the southernmost counties of the Chicago area - Livingston, Iroquois and Ford counties in Illinois and Newton, Jasper and Benton Counties in Indiana including the cities of Pontiac, Watseka, Paxton in Illinois and Morocco, Rensselaer and Fowler in Indiana. From that area north to Interstate-80,4 to 6-iches could fall with 1 to 4-inches a possibility for portions of Chicago proper and lesser amounts north to the Wisconsin-Illinois state line.
Current snow-probability maps below produced by the National Weather Service - Weather Prediction Center give the chances of 4-inches of more and 8-inches or more of snowfall. Note the strong gradation of probabilities from Chicago south into central Illinois (red-encircled area with a better than 70-percent probability of heavy snow).
Four-inches or more 7pm Saturday to 7pm Sunday
8-inches or more 7pm Saturday to 7pm Sunday
As the intense center of low pressure moves east of Lake Superior into Canada’s Ontario province, and the jet stream pushes south into the Ohio River Valley, the subsequent strong northwest flow over the Midwest and western Great Lakes is pulling Arctic-origin air into the Chicago area. Temperatures in the teens and northwest winds at 25 with gusts to 40 miles per hour resulted in sub-zero and single-digit wind chills around the metro area.
Some 8am observations
ILZ005-006-012>014-019>023-191400-
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
ROCKFORD SUNNY 15 6 67 W18G29 29.90R WCI -2
FREEPORT* CLEAR 15 8 73 W18G25 29.91R WCI -2
ROCHELLE* SUNNY 16 9 74 W26G33 29.91R WCI -4
DE KALB* SUNNY 15 7 72 W23G35 29.87S WCI -4
PERU* SUNNY 19 10 66 W20G29 29.97R WCI 4
$$
ILZ005-006-012>014-019>023-191400-
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CHICAGO-OHARE FLURRIES 17 9 70 W22G33 29.85R WCI 0
CHICAGO-MIDWAY PTSUNNY 19 7 59 W22G36 29.89R WCI 2
AURORA SUNNY 17 9 70 W25G39 29.89R WCI -1
LANSING* PTSUNNY 19 10 67 W20G26 29.88S WCI 4
JOLIET* SUNNY 19 9 67 W15G25 29.91S WCI 4
WAUKEGAN LGT SNOW 15 8 73 W10G22 29.81R WCI 2
DUPAGE AIRPORT CLOUDY 17 8 67 W24G32 29.87R WCI -1
KANKAKEE* MOSUNNY 20 11 66 W23G35 29.93S WCI 3
WHEELING CLOUDY 17 8 67 W14G28 29.86R WCI 3
MORRIS* SUNNY 20 11 69 W24G33 29.92S WCI 3
ROMEOVILLE* SUNNY 18 10 69 W24G33 29.90S WCI 1
NORTHERLY ISL N/A 19 10 68 W12 N/A WCI 7
MILWAUKEE PTSUNNY 15 7 70 W16G28 29.77R WCI -1
KENOSHA* LGT SNOW 15 7 70 W25G35 29.80R WCI -4
RACINE* FLURRIES 16 7 67 W20G31 29.79R WCI -1
BURLINGTON LGT SNOW 12 9 85 W15G26 29.81R WCI -4
WAUKESHA LGT SNOW 10 7 85 W17G29 29.78R WCI -7
WEST BEND LGT SNOW 14 9 79 W22G32 29.73R WCI -4
A band of moderate snow moving east of Chicago will be followed by similar band by 5Pm. The metro area will be experiencing an occasional sharp decrease in visibility in some of the more moderate snow showers with possible minor accumulations. Traffic headed home will be slowed down somewhat and roads could even become slick in spots with temperatures hovering right at the 32-degree mark.
The cold front triggering this snow will be east of the city out over Lake Michigan later this evening. Behind the front winds pick up – becoming westerly at 25 with occasional gusts to 40 miles per hour. Strong west to northwest winds gusting to 40 mph will continue through the night.
An intensifying center of low pressure will move east across northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan today and tonight, while at the same time another center of low pressure moves east out of southern Illinois across Indiana into Ohio. The southern-track low center has been spreading a wintery mix of snow/freezing rain/and ice pellets across northern Illinois including the Chicago area into northern Indiana. The stronger northern low center is dumping up to 10 inches of wind-driven snow across portions of the Dakotas into Minnesota (Blizzard Warnings – orange-shaded areas on the map below. Three to six inches of snow can be expected from northeast Iowa into central and northern Wisconsin today. Heavy Lake-effect snows of one to to two feet are forecast later tonight into Tuesday across Upper Michigan.
Slow Chicago-area afternoon-evening commute home
As the low pressure moves across northern Wisconsin, the associated cold front is forecast to sweep east through Wisconsin and northern Illinois – preceded by a band of snow this afternoon. We’ll have to see how this develops, but some minor snow accumulations and slippery conditions could occur and continue into the later afternoon making for a slow-going commute home. Easterly winds will shift sharply to the west gusting to 25 miles per hour behind the cold front and strengthening to 35 miles per hour or greater tonight.
Storm Prediction Center Map of Winter Storm Warnings/Advisories
Map of Midwest depicting double-barrel low pressure systems
Low pressure moving out of Missouri into west-central Illinois will spread another wave of rain over the northeast Illinois - including the Chicago area, southeast Wisconsin and northwestern Indiana this afternoon. Winter Storm warnings for 5 to 10 inches of heavy snow tonight into Monday are in effect over portions of Iowa and Wisconsin into upper Michigan (pink-shaded area on map below) with Winter Storm Advisories for lesser amounts (2 to 5 inches on either side - purple shaded).
In the Chicago area a patchwork of flood advisories, warnings and watches (different shades of green on the map) have been issued to highlight individual rivers and streams that are rising due to the extensive snowmelt and concurrent half-inch to inch rainfall that has already occurred. Soils are frozen just below the surface, so most of the water is run off into close-by, fast-filling drainage systems. Ponding is occurring and local flooding has already being reported in some of the more flood-prone areas. Be aware of conditions in your areas of concern.
Dense fog (grey-shaded on map) could become more of a problem in the Chicago area later this afternoon and evening as the low pressure center approaches and moves over this area.
The latest run of our in-house RPM model indicates that the entire Chicago area is about to receive a major snowfall. It also continues the latest subtle trend of the recent model runs that have indicated that the heaviest snowfall totals will target areas from the city south.
Latest snowfall forecast valid 9pm Tuesday
