The tornado warning issued for the deadly EF-5 Moore Tornado on Monday May 20, 2013

Below is a copy of the actual tornado warning issued for what was to become the
deadly EF-5 Moore tornado. the warning was issued with a 36 minute lead time before
the twister struck the area and was issued 16 minutes  before the twister first touched
down.

 

The warning contains verbiage of the new impact-based warnings being issued by
the National Weather Service which employs tougher language in the call to
action statements to urge people to take protective action NOW. The enhanced
wording is bolded in the text below.



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
301 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
 


* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
  SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
  NORTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
 


* UNTIL 345 PM CDT
 

* AT 259 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
  SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO NEAR
  NEWCASTLE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
  MPH.
 


THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR MOORE AND SOUTH OKLAHOMA CITY.
 


IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL
SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MIDWEST CITY...MOORE...NEWCASTLE...STANLEY DRAPER LAKE...TINKER AIR
  FORCE BASE AND VALLEY BROOK.
 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 


THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. IF YOU
CANNOT GET UNDERGROUND GO TO A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A
STURDY BUILDING NOW.
 



TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS.
&&

			

Winter's coming- The official NOAA/NWS winter forecast followed by Tom Skilling's take on the upcoming Winter 2012-13

THE NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICIAL WINTER 2012-2013 OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD DECEMBER 2012-FEBRUARY 2013

Elusive El Niño challenges NOAA’s 2012 U.S. Winter Outlook

October 18, 2012

GOES-14

 

The western half of the continental U.S. and central and northern Alaska could be in for a warmer-than-average winter, while most of Florida might be colder-than-normal December through February, according to NOAA’s annual Winter Outlook announced today from the agency’s new Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in College Park, Md.

 

Forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center say a wavering El Niño, expected to have developed by now, makes this year’s winter outlook less certain than previous years.

 

“This is one of the most challenging outlooks we’ve produced in recent years because El Niño decided not to show up as expected,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “In fact, it stalled out last month, leaving neutral conditions in place in the tropical Pacific.”

 

When El Niño is present, warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall that in turn influence the strength and position of the jetstream and storms over the Pacific Ocean and United States. This climate pattern gives seasonal forecasters confidence in how the U.S. winter will unfold. An El Niño watch remains in effect because there’s still a window for it to emerge.

GOES-14

 

Other climate factors can influence winter weather across the country. Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, a prominent climate pattern, are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the winter outlook in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country.

 

Areas ravaged by extreme drought over the past year are unlikely to see much relief from drought conditions this winter.

 

In the 2012 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February) odds favor:

 

  • Warmer-than-average temperatures in much of Texas, northward through the Central and Northern Plains and westward across the Southwest, the Northern Rockies, and eastern Washington, Oregon and California, as well as the northern two-thirds of Alaska.
  • Cooler-than-average temperatures in Hawaii and in most of Florida, excluding the panhandle.
  • Drier-than-average conditions in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, including Idaho, western Montana, and portions of Wyoming, Utah and most of Nevada.
  • Drier-than-average conditions in the upper Midwest, including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and northern Missouri and eastern parts of North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and western Illinois.
  • Wetter-than-average conditions across the Gulf Coast states from the northern half of Florida to eastern Texas.

 

The rest of the country falls into the “equal chance” category, meaning these areas have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and/or precipitation.

 

This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.

 

NOAA’s National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. NOAA’s National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Working with partners, NOAA’s National Weather Service is building a Weather-Ready Nation to support community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook.

 

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit them at http://www.noaa.gov and join them on FacebookTwitter and other social media channels.

 

TOM SKILLING’S VIEW OF THE UPCOMING 2012-13 WINTER

 

We appear to have a VERY DIFFERENT winter on the way compared to last. Last winter was exceptionally mild and snow-less. There were only 10 days with an inch or more of snow on the ground the entire snow season— 43 days is normal. And the Dec-Feb winter period produced the 9th warmest temps of any winter in 142 years of records here averaging an impressive 6.4-deg above normal: 32.8-deg versus a normal of 26.4-deg. This winter may be far more conventional—and even possibly snowier than the long term average if our in-house statistical work pans out.

 

 

NOAA has released its official winter outlook confirming the demise of the notion that an El Nino is a “shoe-in” this winter. It appears an El Nino–or certainly a strong El Nino–may not be in the cards. The El Nino evolution process has stalled if not reversed in the equatorial Pacific. Several of the most trustworthy coupled ocean/atmosphere seasonal computer forecast models, including NOAA’s CFS model, have all but abandoned the notion of an El Nino–and they’ve certainly abandoned the notion of a “moderate” or “strong” El Nino, as we’ve reported here and on our blog in recent weeks. This effectively nixes the notion of an El Nino-driven milder than normal winter in terms of temperature here in Chicago and the Midwest. We’ve run local temp & snowfall stats for 21 ENSO neutral cold seasons since 1950—these so-call “neutral” seasons are the ones which occur between El Ninos and La Ninas— to discern local trends in such periods.

 

 

What comes of this is that slightly more than half of ENSO neutral winters–52% of them–end up colder than the long term average. But the snowy winter numbers are more impressive. 14 of the 21 snow seasons in ENSO neutral years have been snowier than the long term average–that’s 67% of them. This suggests we could have a much different cold season on the way–in terms of both temp and snowfall—than last year. This may well end up a colder and snowier cold season than last. And that’s not even taking into account the sudden appearance of high latitude “Greenland-type” blocking which has started showing up from time to time in recent months—another development that, were it to continue, would argue for a colder and potentially snowier winter. There’s nothing carved in stone or certain about ANY seasonal outlook.

 

 

There are many variables which impact seasonal weather which are NOT completely understood. So weigh my observations with that in mind. But history HAS been known to be a bell-weather of potential seasonal weather trends and this will be an interesting one to monitor.

reports of severe weather

0912 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARPENTERSVILLE         42.12N 88.27W
07/18/2012                   KANE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

6 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN AND 8 INCH TREE DOWN.

0915 PM     TSTM WND GST     ELGIN                   42.04N 88.29W
07/18/2012  M60.00 MPH       KANE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0925 PM     TSTM WND GST     INVERNESS               42.12N 88.10W
07/18/2012  E70.00 MPH       COOK               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

0925 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ELGIN                   42.04N 88.29W
07/18/2012  E1.05 INCH       KANE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

1.05 INCHES IN 20 MINUTES.

0925 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELGIN                   42.04N 88.29W
07/18/2012                   KANE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

MULTIPLE WIND GUSTS AT 50 TO 60 MPH DOWNING SMALL TREE
BRANCHES.

0932 PM     TSTM WND GST     SCHAUMBURG              42.03N 88.08W
07/18/2012  E65.00 MPH       COOK               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

AT BARRINGTON AND SCHAUMBURG ROADS. HEAVY RAINFALL.

0945 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GLENCOE                 42.13N 87.76W
07/18/2012                   COOK               IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAZEL ROAD CLOSED UNDER VIADUCT BECAUSE OF HIGH WATER.
TIME ESTIMATED.

0955 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE WINNETKA          42.10N 87.72W
07/18/2012  M2.30 INCH       COOK               IL   COCORAHS

2.30 INCHES RAINFALL IN 60 MINUTES. STILL RAINING. MINOR
FLOODING.

Winter Storm Watch issued for potential heavy snow over Northern Illinois Friday including Chicago metro area – six inches or more possible in counties along and north of Interstate-80 and snow should taper off to 1 to 5 inches in counties to the south

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

323 AM CST THU JAN 19 2012

 

…DEVELOPING WINTER STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO

NORTHERN ILLINOIS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT…

 

WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ROCKFORD…BELVIDERE…WOODSTOCK…

WAUKEGAN…OREGON…DIXON…DEKALB…AURORA…WHEATON…CHICAGO

323 AM CST THU JAN 19 2012

 

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH

FRIDAY EVENING…

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY

EVENING.

 

* TIMING…SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS

  AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN

  ILLINOIS…INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA…BY LATE FRIDAY

  MORNING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING…

  TAPERING OFF TO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES BY EARLY SATURDAY

  MORNING.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS…STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES

  ARE POSSIBLE.

 

* HAZARDS…THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS LIKELY TO FALL FROM FRIDAY

  AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING…WHEN SNOWFALL RATES OF UP

  TO ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW

  COVERED AND DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN IF THESE SNOWFALL RATES

  MATERIALIZE. TRAVEL ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL BECOME

  DIFFICULT AND PERHAPS DANGEROUS.

 

* IMPACTS…ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED

  TRAVEL TIMES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS

  EXPECTED TO BE FALLING DURING THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY

  EVENING EVENING RUSH HOUR COMMUTE. DELAYS AT CHICAGO AREA

  AIRPORTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

 

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS

Late-season heat shatters temperature records across northern Illinois Saturday afternoon

UPDATED 7:00 p.m.

A third straight day of unlimited sunshine helped send area temperatures to unseasonably lofty levels for October Saturday afternoon causing several long-standing records to fall across northern Illinois.

Most notable was the high of 90 degrees at Rockford, that not only broke the 1938 high of 88 degrees but also marked the latest in the season 90 on record at Rockford, besting the 90 degree reading on October 6, 1963 by three days.

In Chicago the mercury reached 87 degrees at  Midway Airport breakign the record of 86 degrees set there in 1949.

Officially at Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport the high was 86 degrees which equalled the the record high for October 9 established in 1949.

In the Quad Cities area the high at Moline reached 89 degrees besting the previous record high of 87 degrees set back in 1938.

 

Speakers for the 2010 Fermilab/WGN-TV Tornado and Severe Weather Seminar

Fermilab10.png

We have an excellent program planned this year for our 30th annual Fermilab Tornado and Severe Storms Seminar.  We are really looking forward to seeing you there! I hope you have a chance to join us. It takes place next Saturday, April 10, and will be repeated twice–first at Noon and a second time (it will be repeated in its entirety) at 6 PM.  As always, it’s free and there are no tickets required!

Just travel to the Fermilab grounds in Batavia and head for the Ramsey Auditorium (it’s the tallest building there and can’t be missed) by way of the western entrance off Kirk Road (link to Google Maps).
 
Click the link below for a complete rundown of this year’s speakers and summaries of their talks:

Continue reading

Latest Tom Skilling update on the winter storm that will affect the Chicago area tonight and Friday

snwalrt0213TUES.jpg
Forces are coming together this evening that threatens to bring a major winter storm to
the Midwest and the Chicago area. A stunningly strong 180 m.p.h. band of jet
stream-level winds is helping generate this intense storm. This is the same system that
brought Las Vegas is biggest snowfall since 1979 and will have copious moisture to
feed it.
This evening radars are beginning to light up with returns as the storm assembles
across the Midwest. Freezing rain has developed in the St. Louis area and is being
reported in the extreme southern portion of the state. Clouds in the Chicago area
should lower and thicken this evening with precipitation expected to begin reaching the
ground in the far southwest portions of the metropolitan area by 7 or 8 p.m. and across
the rest of the area between 9 p.m. and midnight.
Significant accumulations of snow and ice are expected across the Chicago area.
Precipitation is to overspread the Chicago area from southwest to northeast late
tonight—then fall steadily, and at times heavily—-through mid-morning Friday.
Strong vertical motion generated by the storm will produce thunder and lightning and
these strong updrafts will produce bursts of heavy precipitation. During thundersnow,
snow accumulation rates can exceed 2 to 3 inches per hour.
The system may seriously impact Friday morning’s rush hour. A cocktail of
precipitation is to affect the area with heavy snow and sleet north of I-80 and snow and
sleet changing to freezing rain and threatening serious ice accumulations to the south
from Pontiac and Kankakee to Rensselaer, Indiana. Local accumulations of around a
foot are possible in counties adjoining the Illinois/Wisconsin line before precipitation
winds down to sporadic flurries or snow showers later Friday morning and
afternoon—tapering off quickly to 1-5” south of I-80.
–Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune
–Steve Kahn, WGN Weather Center Meteorologist

Sunday night's 45-degree temperature drop

Thanks to Midway observer Frank Wachowski for providing us with the actual thermograph temperature trace of the precipitous temperature fall that sent readings crashing 45 degrees in just 12 hours from a balmy 51 degrees at 8 p.m. to a frigid 6 degrees above zero at 8 a.m. Monday morning.
imageforsteve.jpg
Chart provided by Frank Wachowski

Round-Up of Thursday's Storm Pictures

We’d like to send out a special thank you to everyone who sent us photos from Thursday’s storms — it was an incredible batch of images that ranged from a never-before-seen “lightning behind a rainbow” snapshot to views of the approaching derecho and storm clouds from across the Chicago area.
Here’s a quick shortcut to all the photos we’ve posted on the blog from Thursday’s storm.
(Note: Due to the number of photos, it may take a minute or two for all the photos to fully load.) We hope you enjoy these photos as much as we do.
—WGN-TV Weather Center