TIM’S WEATHER WORLD

Tim’s Weather World: Snowless streak continues

Posted on: December 12th, 2012 5:58 AM by Tim McGill No Comments

 

Hard to get snow with the type of temperatures we have seen so far this winter.  Today will mark the 15th day in a row with highs at or above average.  We should be near 50 by Friday.  We have yet to see a high temperature below freezing.  On average, the first sub-freezing high temperature occurs on November 22nd.  The latest we have ever gone into winter without a high below freezing was January 1st, 1923.   In the top ten years we went furthest into winter without a sub-freezing high, 7 out of 10 of those winters went on to produce less than average snowfall.  So far we are 3.8" below average with only a trace reported at O'Hare.  Even in the "easy winter" we saw last year we had .5" by now.  Today is the 283rd day in a row without measurable snow (at least .1").  Every day without measurable snow stretches that record out even further.

 

The prospects for the white stuff aren't very good in the short term at least. The GFS model squirts out a scant .1"of snow collectively over the next 10 days.

 

It appears our mild start to winter will continue.  The 6 to 10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center outlooks the middle part of the country from the midwest to the deep south with above average temperatures.

 

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Tim’s Weather World: Feast or famine snow

Posted on: December 10th, 2012 5:54 AM by Tim McGill No Comments

 

Minneapolis saw record snowfall yesterday with 10.5".  Their "snow drought" has come to an end almost overnight.  As of Saturday the city was behind 2.4" in average snowfall since December 1st and now they have a surplus of nearly 8" of snow above and beyond average.  Princeton, Minnesota lead the state with 13" of new snow.  Below is a graphic that shows where the snow fell Sunday.

It may be a feast for Minnesota but our snow famine continues here.  We will get scant amounts of snow today.  If we fail to pick up .1" of snow or more, we will break the record of consecutive days without measurable snow as the tally could reach 281 today.   The last time we saw measurable snow was back on March 4th.  Milwaukee broke their streak for snowless days today with 280 days since their last measurable snow.

 

If no measurable snow falls at O'Hare today, we could go on to shatter the previous record by at least another 4 days.  The forecast is dry after today through the end of the week.  The graphics below show the total snowfall accumulation forecast for the next 10 days ending early next Thursday morning.  The GFS model (on top) shows a potential of 1.3" during the period while the European model (on bottom) shows a potential for up to 4".  Hang in there snow lovers!

 

 

 

 

O'Hare has reported just a trace of snow so far this snow season or about 3.3" below average.

 

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Tim’s Weather World: Break out the broom or the shovel?

Posted on: December 5th, 2012 6:19 AM by Tim McGill No Comments

 

Our first decent chance for some sticking December snow appears to be coming Sunday night into early Monday.  Before you break out the shovel, keep in mind that the models aren't in total agreement on the path and strength of the storm.  The graphic below shows the 10 day accumulated snowfall forecast from the GFS (Global Forecast System) model.  It seems to suggest 1-3" of snow coming with most of it occurring early next week.  Note the 6-12" area depicted over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa.

 

On the other hand, the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Forecast) model is suggesting an inch or less with most of that northwest of Chicago.

 

The GFS model is forecasting a colder, stronger system than the ECMWF.  The European model has gotten a lot of attention this year after hurricane Sandy.  It was the model of choice for many as it was the first to accurately predict the unusual left-hand turn of the storm that would eventually slam it into the Jersey shore.

 

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Tim’s Weather World: Dreaming of a white Christmas?

Posted on: December 3rd, 2012 8:27 AM by Tim McGill No Comments

 

With our warm start to the week and near record highs today it is hard to imagine seeing any snowfall soon but meteorological winter has only just begun.  So if you are dreaming of a white Christmas, don't let the 60s get you down.  Historically speaking, 57 of the last 126 (45%) Christmas days have seen no snowfall.  However, snow has fallen on Christmas day 67 time (55%). The vast majority of those Christmas days saw under an inch of snow.  The most snow to ever fall on Christmas day was 5.1" in 1950.  The graphic below comes courtesy of the National Weather Service office in Romeoville.

Snow does not need to fall on Christmas in order to have a "White Christmas".  The National Climatic Data Center's criteria for a white Christmas is any Christmas with at least one inch of snow on the ground that morning.  We have seen a white Christmas 5 out of the last 10 years.  The most recent was 2010 with 5" of snow on the ground Christmas day.  The most snow on the ground at Midway Airport on Christmas was 17" back  in 1951.

The National Climatic Data Center produced the map above that shows the historical probability of having a white Christmas.  The probability of having a white Christmas in Chicago is around 44%.  The most likely areas to see a white Christmas are in northern Minnesota, the Northwoods of Wisconsin , the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and parts of New England where there is a greater than 90% probability of having a white Christmas.

 

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Tim’s Weather World: Snow free start to meteorological winter

Posted on: November 30th, 2012 5:51 AM by Tim McGill No Comments

 

Meteorological winter starts Saturday and despite the change in seasons, there is no real snow in sight for the next several days.  This weekend and early next week will feature October-like warmth with highs near 60°.   It might not quite be shorts weather but it certainly won't be "Bear weather" at Soldier Field Sunday as southerly breezes push highs to nearly 20° above average.

 

At least someone is getting some snow...

 

The snow scene in the photograph above is from Moscow.  The Russian capital is digging out from one of their biggest November snowstorms of the past 50 years.  The storm dumped up to 8" of snow or nearly half their normal amount for the entire month of November.

 

There will be a quick shot of colder air on Tuesday and Wednesday but then temps bounce back above average by the end of next week.  The 6 to 10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center has the vast majority of the U.S. outlooked for above average temperatures for the period that covers the end of next week and next weekend.  Hard to get snow without the cold.

 

Snow has been scant so far for much of the midwest and northern plains.  Here are some other cities that have yet to see any substantial snowfall:

 

Snowfall so far                      Amount below average

O'Hare                                                         Trace                                            -1.3"

Milwaukee                                                   Trace                                            -2.2"

Green Bay                                                    1.5"                                              -2.2"

Des Moines                                                 Trace                                            -2.3"

International Falls                                        10.5"                                             -4.9"

Minneapolis                                                   .8"                                               -8.6"

 

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Tim’s Weather World: Slow but steady warm up coming

Posted on: November 26th, 2012 6:22 AM by Tim McGill No Comments

 

We are looking at three straight days with highs in the 30s.  Last time we saw that was nearly nine months ago, back in early March.  Lows tonight will dip into the teens for most areas.  The last time that happened was back in late February.  This temperature turn down will be a temporary one.  After a chilly start to the week we can look forward to a slow but steady warm up that will bring highs close to 60 by Sunday.

The longer range forecast is also mild.  The 6 to 10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center has us outlooked Illinois for a better than 60% probability of above average temperatures for December 3rd through December 9th.

 

 

This current cold snap is not the norm this year.  The record highs  for the U.S. have outnumbered the record lows by a margin of 5 to 1.  There have been over 32,000 record highs nationally and just over 6 thousand record lows.

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Tim’s Weather World: Snowcover shrinks then expands

Posted on: November 21st, 2012 5:00 AM by Tim McGill No Comments

 

31.5% of the contiguous US reported snow cover on November 12th.  In a little over a week that snow cover has shrunk to just 7.2% of the US.  No wonder with record highs yesterday reported in nine states.  Highs hit 70 as far north as South Dakota.  Snow lovers can take heart though since computer models are hinting at snow cover expanding during the next 10 days.  The 10 day total snowfall forecast maps below from the European model (top image) and the US model have snow cover stretching southward into northern Illinois by the start of December.

It is easy to envision more snow after seeing the 6 to 10 day outlook for temperatures from the Climate Prediction Center. Northern Illinois and northwest Indiana have a greater than 60% probability of seeing below average temperatures for the end of November.  So far we have seen just a trace of snow officially.  The average snowfall through the end of November is 1.5".  A few flurries could fly as early as Friday as temperatures tumble and strong northwest winds carry in the coldest air of the season so far.  The next chance of snow beyond that is Tuesday as models suggest a system could bring us rain initially that may mix with and change to snow that day.

 

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Tim’s Weather World: Drought and October temps update

Posted on: November 16th, 2012 6:46 AM by Tim McGill No Comments

 

The drought has eased only slightly for the contiguous United States.  58.83% of the country is experiencing a moderate to exceptional drought according to the latest numbers from the US Drought Monitor.  That is down only .65% from a week ago.  18.30% of the country is experiencing extreme to exceptional drought, down just 1.06% from a week ago.  Locally, the news was a bit better.   43.6% of Illinois is in a moderate to severe drought compared to 54.47% of the state last week.

The bottom line is the drought continues to linger across our country.  The long range forecast calls for some improvement for portions of the midwest and southeast but little relief for the areas hardest hit, the plains and southwest. The drought's impact is affecting winter wheat.  The USDA reports 36% of the crop is rated good to excellent, down from last year's rating of 50%.

The ongoing drought and unusually warm weather for the US go hand in hand.  The January through October period was the warmest first ten months of any year on record. We aren't the only ones feeling the heat this year. Globally, October 2012 was the 5th warmest ever since record keeping began in 1880.  It was also the 3th consecutive October and 332nd consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average.

Other highlights from the National Climatic Data Center's State of the Climate report:

 

  • Record to near-record warmth over land from April to September and above-average global ocean temperatures resulted in the first ten months of 2012 ranking as the eighth warmest such period on record.
  • The January–October worldwide land surface temperature was 1.69°F (0.94°C) above the 20th century average, making this the sixth warmest such period on record.
  • The global ocean surface temperature for the year to date was 0.79°F (0.44°C) above average, tying with 1997 as the 10th warmest such period on record.

 

 

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Tim’s Weather World: Long stretch with no snow

Posted on: November 14th, 2012 5:40 AM by Tim McGill No Comments

 

Our first official snow of the season fell on Monday, about two weeks behind schedule. On average, the first trace of snow or more fall on October 30th.  This was the first snow since March 4th.  That means we went 252 days snow free, about 54 days more than average.  The typical spring-to autumn snow free period is 198 days.  The only time we went longer without snow was the spring-to-autumn period of 1999 when that year's snow free period stretched to 254 days.

 

Speaking of snow...

 

 

About a third of the contiguous US (31%) has snow cover.  That is nearly 7 times as much snow cover compared to just a week ago.  It is also about three times more snow compared to last year at this time when 10.7% of the country was reporting snow cover. 

 

 

As of today, the odds of a white Thanksgiving around here are slim.  Most long range forecasts that look to the holiday and beyond have outlooked us for above average temperatures.  The Climate Prediction Center has a large portion of the US projected to see above average temperatures in both their 6 to 10 day (see below) outlook and their 8 to 14 day outlook. 

 

 

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Tim’s Weather World: Cool here lately but 2012 is on record warm pace

Posted on: November 9th, 2012 5:07 AM by Tim McGill No Comments

 

Yesterday marked the 14th straight day here with temperatures below average.  That is the longest such streak in at least 3 years.  It is particularly unusual in 2012 since it is on pace to be the warmest year on record for the contiguous United States.  January through October was the warmest first ten months of any year on record according to the National Climatic Data Center.  October cooled off a bit but so far 2012 is still on pace to finish as the warmest year on record. The average temperature for October was 53.9°, 0.3° below the long-term average.   October was the first month since May 2011 to end up below average for the lower 48 states.  The streak of above average months ended with 16 in September.

 

The graph above shows that despite a cooler than average October, the country is still on pace to see its warmest year on record (the darkest line represents 2012.).    It would take a dramatic turn to colder weather for the final two months of the year to change that.  At this point, that seems like a very unlikely scenario.  As a matter of fact, the 8 to 14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center has a majority of the country outlooked for above average temperatures (see graphic below).

In the shorter term, expect a warm up this weekend with 60s and then the coldest air of the season so far arriving here early next week.  A few flakes could fly on Monday as daytime temps tumble into the 30s. 

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