We’ve been watching the models for signs of significant snowfall this Sunday ever since they hinted at the possibility earlier this week. Just yesterday the European model was touting a robust snow producer that could lay out up to 8″. The latest model solutions have pulled way back. The European model is now suggesting 1-4″ is more likely with the city and areas southward getting the low end of the range or barely anything at all. The GFS model didn’t waiver as much also sticking to a similar solution of under an inch in the city and southward.
While changing snowfall forecasts can be frustrating they are to be expected. Snowfall amounts are one of the most difficult things to forecast.
There are many factors that influence snowfall forecasts.
- Duration of the storm-When will it begin? How long will it last?
- Track of the storm-a 100 mile wobble could mean the difference between flurries and a foot of snow.
- Lake effect enhancement-will the storm be supercharged with a wind off the lake adding to totals?
- Snow to liquid ratio-colder storms could fluff up to 20″ of snow or more from one inch of liquid while 10″ snow is the average.
- Ground temperature-a warm ground could melt snow initially lowering the total accumulation.
- Moisture-will thunderstorms in the warm sector suck up moisture that could have added to snowfall totals?
In other words, stay tuned because the forecast could change and probably will.