It's the warmest October open in 5 years and the 19th-warmest since records began in 1871

The 60s recorded here Sunday and Monday—readings close to seasonal norms—belie the above-normal temperature trend which has spilled from August and September into the new month.  It’s not just been mild—it’s been ABNORMALLY mild with temps running significantly warmer than usual!

 

The  first full week of the month has ranked among the warmest 13% of October opens since official records began in 1871.

 

Not only has Oct. 1-7 averaged 65.6-degrees—nearly 7-degrees above the 142- year average of 58.7-degrees—but the period has run 12.6-degrees warmer than the same period a year ago. That’s an eye-catching increase!

 

Though nights will feel a bit cool in the week ahead, overnight lows are still to come in “above” the mid 40s considered normal this time of year.

 

Daytime highs will be running surpluses averaging 7 to 12-degrees—more than enough to extend the temp surplus with which October 2013 has opened through the coming work week.

 

 

Deep upper air trough to develop in the West this week, signaling significantly warmer than normal temps continuing in the Midwest into the weekend

 

The dominance of warmer than normal weather here won’t be hurt at all by the southward buckling jet stream predicted in the days ahead over the West. It’s a pattern which is to cool the West and ultimately bring rains and high elevation snows with greater frequency there. But the same flow regime aloft  is to keep the warm weather coming across the Midwest by shifting steering winds southwesterly here, pumping up a dome of unseasonably mild air in the process.

 

Wind, waves and big rains headed up the East Coast as Karen remnants combine with sprawling Canadian high pressure to produce strong, long-fetch east/northeast winds

 

The West won’t be the only area of the country likely to see precipitation in the days ahead. So too will a large swath of the East Coast, where remnants of Tropical Storm Karen are to join forces with a sprawling Canadian high pressure to produce a strong, long-fetch (distance) east to northeast wind flow likely to create large waves and send them into the East Coast.

 

Some computer models are building 12 ft. swells just offshore by mid-week in a wind field which may include coastal gusts approaching if not exceeding 50 mph at times.

 

Small craft advisories have been hoisted from Georgia north to New England.

 

Heavy rains may exceed 1-2” before the end of the work week up and down a good stretch of the Eastern Seaboard in a weather pattern likely to affect an area which includes Cape Hatteras as well as the Washington DC, Philadelphia and New York areas.