Our first decent chance for some sticking December snow appears to be coming Sunday night into early Monday. Before you break out the shovel, keep in mind that the models aren’t in total agreement on the path and strength of the storm. The graphic below shows the 10 day accumulated snowfall forecast from the GFS (Global Forecast System) model. It seems to suggest 1-3″ of snow coming with most of it occurring early next week. Note the 6-12″ area depicted over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa.
On the other hand, the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Forecast) model is suggesting an inch or less with most of that northwest of Chicago.
The GFS model is forecasting a colder, stronger system than the ECMWF. The European model has gotten a lot of attention this year after hurricane Sandy. It was the model of choice for many as it was the first to accurately predict the unusual left-hand turn of the storm that would eventually slam it into the Jersey shore.