Tim's Weather World: Cool here lately but 2012 is on record warm pace

Yesterday marked the 14th straight day here with temperatures below average.  That is the longest such streak in at least 3 years.  It is particularly unusual in 2012 since it is on pace to be the warmest year on record for the contiguous United States.  January through October was the warmest first ten months of any year on record according to the National Climatic Data Center.  October cooled off a bit but so far 2012 is still on pace to finish as the warmest year on record. The average temperature for October was 53.9°, 0.3° below the long-term average.   October was the first month since May 2011 to end up below average for the lower 48 states.  The streak of above average months ended with 16 in September.


The graph above shows that despite a cooler than average October, the country is still on pace to see its warmest year on record (the darkest line represents 2012.).    It would take a dramatic turn to colder weather for the final two months of the year to change that.  At this point, that seems like a very unlikely scenario.  As a matter of fact, the 8 to 14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center has a majority of the country outlooked for above average temperatures (see graphic below).

In the shorter term, expect a warm up this weekend with 60s and then the coldest air of the season so far arriving here early next week.  A few flakes could fly on Monday as daytime temps tumble into the 30s. 



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