Tim's Weather World: Deja vu this winter?

Fall has just begun but why not peak ahead at the early outlook for this winter?  Could we be in for a repeat of last winter? The winter of 2011-2012 was a fairly dry, mild winter overall.  It ranked as the 9th warmest winter of the past 142.  It was the 48th least snowiest winter of 128.  Early indications from the Climate Prediction Center have us outlooked for above average temperatures.  The bulls eye of the 40% or more probability of a milder than average winter is centered right over Illinois and Indiana.

 

 

The outlook for precipitation isn’t quite as clear.  It would seem to adjust suggest a winter similar to last year for most of the area with snowfall less than average.  Extreme northern and northwestern Illinois is not included in area outlooked with a 33% or higher probability of below average precipitation.

 Finally, the Farmers’ Almanac has released its outlook for this upcoming winter season.  Here is a quote:

 

For the coming season, we’re predicting that winter will return to some – but not all – areas. We think it will be a “winter of contraries, as if Old Man Winter were cutting the country in half. The eastern half of the country will see plenty of cold and snow. The western half will experience relatively warm and dry condition. In other words, as in the political arena, the climate this winter will render us a nation divided.

 

According to the almanac the midwest will be “cold & snowy”. 
 
Take all this with several grains of salt though.  It was about this time last year most outlooks were calling for a brutal winter with below average temperatures and above average snowfall and we now know how that turned out.
 

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