By Meteorologist Tom Skilling
There hasn't been a milder meteorological winter here than this one in 78 years. Though this season has produced some wintry moments, last Friday's snowstorm among them, the vast majority of days---82 percent of them---have posted above normal temperatures. What's more, we could find only 11 winters of the past 141 for which official weather records exist, which have been milder up to this point in time.
Chicago's average temperature since Dec. 1 is running 32.4-degrees, well above the 141-year average of 26.8-degrees and a stunning 11.3-degrees warmer than the same period a year ago. That's a difference which suggests many Chicago area residents have required 17 percent less home heating.
To find a winter that's been milder over the Dec. 1 through Jan. 24 period, you'd have to go back to the Dust Bowl---specifically to the winter of 1933-34 when the city's temperature averaged 32.8-degrees.
A slight majority of springs following comparably mild winters have trended cooler than normal; 70 percent of summer have been warmer than the norm
We're often asked if winter weather tells us anything about the spring and summer season to come. To answer than, we scanned Chicago's observational record all the way back to 1871 and isolated ten winters with mild temperatures close to those observed this year.
In 6 of the 10 meteorological springs (covering the period from March 1 through May 31), overall temperatures turned around and averaged cooler than the long term average. But an even more impressive number of summers (80 percent of them) turned warmer than the long term average.
Latest winter storm threatening waves of severe weather and drenching rains across the South; southern Midwest could see healthy rains
A wet storm, with access to an unlimited supply of Gulf moisture, is to come together from Texas into the Ohio Valley in coming days. For the second time in half a week, severe weather is threatening the South from Texas east to the Florida panhandle. It's a region hit by damaging and even several deadly twisters this past weekend into Monday.
Some studies have shown La Nina springs have a tendency to produce more "family-type" tornado outbreaks, where clusters of twisters occur. The severe weather outbreak from Arkansas to Mississippi and Alabama earlier this week is consistent with that pattern.
U.S. 2012 severe weather season off to active start; the most reports of tornadoes/severe storm into the Storm Prediction Center to date since 2008
The very young 2012 severe weather season is off to an active start. A total of 435 reports of severe weather (i.e. large hail, damaging straight-line winds, etc.) have been filed with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) which, along with NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina, maintain the country's severe weather archive.
Since 2000, only 2008 has managed to record more severe storm reports by now. The 56 reports of twisters on the books this year at SPC is surpassed since 2000 only by the 75 tornadoes reported in January 2008.
Several snowy periods could occur here during the transition to colder air this weekend, beginning late Friday
A multi-day burst of frigid arctic air heads into the area in waves late this week into the coming weekend. Any one of them, if fully developed, could produce several inches of snow. The first is due later Friday into Friday night---a second swings into the area just ahead of sharp cooling predicted Saturday into Saturday night.
The arctic chill will come and go fairly expeditiously, as has been the case with previous cold spells all season.
A third period of light overrunning snow could occur Monday before temperature surge above freezing by Tuesday next week.
There hasn't been a milder meteorological winter here than this one in 78 years. Though this season has produced some wintry moments, last Friday's snowstorm among them, the vast majority of days---82 percent of them---have posted above normal temperatures. What's more, we could find only 11 winters of the past 141 for which official weather records exist, which have been milder up to this point in time.
Chicago's average temperature since Dec. 1 is running 32.4-degrees, well above the 141-year average of 26.8-degrees and a stunning 11.3-degrees warmer than the same period a year ago. That's a difference which suggests many Chicago area residents have required 17 percent less home heating.
To find a winter that's been milder over the Dec. 1 through Jan. 24 period, you'd have to go back to the Dust Bowl---specifically to the winter of 1933-34 when the city's temperature averaged 32.8-degrees.
A slight majority of springs following comparably mild winters have trended cooler than normal; 70 percent of summer have been warmer than the norm
We're often asked if winter weather tells us anything about the spring and summer season to come. To answer than, we scanned Chicago's observational record all the way back to 1871 and isolated ten winters with mild temperatures close to those observed this year.
In 6 of the 10 meteorological springs (covering the period from March 1 through May 31), overall temperatures turned around and averaged cooler than the long term average. But an even more impressive number of summers (80 percent of them) turned warmer than the long term average.
Latest winter storm threatening waves of severe weather and drenching rains across the South; southern Midwest could see healthy rains
A wet storm, with access to an unlimited supply of Gulf moisture, is to come together from Texas into the Ohio Valley in coming days. For the second time in half a week, severe weather is threatening the South from Texas east to the Florida panhandle. It's a region hit by damaging and even several deadly twisters this past weekend into Monday.
Some studies have shown La Nina springs have a tendency to produce more "family-type" tornado outbreaks, where clusters of twisters occur. The severe weather outbreak from Arkansas to Mississippi and Alabama earlier this week is consistent with that pattern.
U.S. 2012 severe weather season off to active start; the most reports of tornadoes/severe storm into the Storm Prediction Center to date since 2008
The very young 2012 severe weather season is off to an active start. A total of 435 reports of severe weather (i.e. large hail, damaging straight-line winds, etc.) have been filed with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) which, along with NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina, maintain the country's severe weather archive.
Since 2000, only 2008 has managed to record more severe storm reports by now. The 56 reports of twisters on the books this year at SPC is surpassed since 2000 only by the 75 tornadoes reported in January 2008.
Several snowy periods could occur here during the transition to colder air this weekend, beginning late Friday
A multi-day burst of frigid arctic air heads into the area in waves late this week into the coming weekend. Any one of them, if fully developed, could produce several inches of snow. The first is due later Friday into Friday night---a second swings into the area just ahead of sharp cooling predicted Saturday into Saturday night.
The arctic chill will come and go fairly expeditiously, as has been the case with previous cold spells all season.
A third period of light overrunning snow could occur Monday before temperature surge above freezing by Tuesday next week.
