By Meteorologist Tom Skilling
Another powerful spring storm, predicted to drench the area with wind-driven, potentially thundery downpours, will take its time reaching Chicago. Jet stream winds, predicted to diverge in coming days into separate branches running on either side of the intensifying eastbound system, assure it is likely to only crawl along. That means its first rains are not expected fall here until Friday afternoon and night, though the northeast winds strengthening on its east side will begin showing up beneath mostly cloudy skies Thursday. By the time the approaching storm truly wrests control of Chicago's weather from the ridge of high pressure producing Wednesday's pleasant spring weather, howling east winds are predicted to lower temperatures to mid-March levels, producing Saturday highs 30 to 40-degrees shy of this past Sunday's 83-degrees.
This system could deposit 0.80 to 1.20 inches across at least sections of the Chicago area if early computer model estimates prove on target---the bulk of it to fall later Friday and Friday night. If true, the storm could be on track to become the area's heaviest rain-maker in the nearly 6 weeks since 1.11-inches fell March 4.
Planting was off to earliest start in memory on area farms just a year ago; weather being monitored carefully as 2011's planting season approaches
The new storm's progress will be watched carefully by area farmers as the Spring 2011 planting season nears. Longtime Will County farmer John Hazzard, noting the near perfect weather conditions in place a year ago, reminds us spring planting had already begun by this time in 2010. Many farmers in the Will County area were out in fields by April 10, the earliest start of any planting season in memory. In a feat only truly remarkable early season weather makes possible, the corn crop had been planted by April 28, often the date by which planting has just gotten started in past years.
Decidedly below normal temperatures being predicted over coming 2 weeks
While surges of warmth like last Sunday's, brief though they often are this early in the season, can't be completely ruled out sometime in the coming 2 weeks, the emerging pattern appears a cool one overall. Estimates of temperatures in the 1 to 5; 6 to 10 and 11 to 15 day periods ahead based on the National Weather Service's GFS model, are likely to average 6-degrees, 11-degrees and 8-degrees below normal respectively.
Jarring weather shift could take Plains from Tuesday 60s to a crippling late-season snowstorm, local wind-whipped 12-inch totals possible parts of the Dakotas
While temperatures are likely to take a hit here once the new storm's
clouds, wind and rain take hold, it's sections of the Plains which appear in for the most abrupt weather changes in coming days. A flow of humid Gulf air flowing into the developing storm, could set up a corridor of heavy late-season snowfall capable of burying sections of the Dakotas under as much as 12 inches or more of snow. The late season snowstorm would come just days after the 60s reported there Tuesday.
Wednesday's 60s to prove fleeting; Spring 2011 running 5.4-degrees behind a year ago but managing modest 1.6-degree surplus to date
Once Wednesday's 60s exit the Chicago area, the earliest the region might again see a 60 or higher temperature could be next Monday. It's possible, however, that winds off the lake then will prevent a reappearance of the benchmark temperature, replacing it instead with lake-cooled air adjacent to Lake Michigan.
The meteorological spring season, which began March 1, has produced temperatures 5.4-degrees behind the same period a year ago. But while cooler than 2010, the 40.1-degree average spring temperature here is still managing a modest 1.4-degree surplus.
Warm days have been in short supply compared to last year. There had been eight 70-degree or higher daytime highs by this date in 2010. By contrast, only a quarter that number of warm days---two of them---has occurred this spring. On average, three days at or above 70 have occurred by April 12 over the past 140 years.
Models continue to generate eye-catchingly high 2 week rainfall numbers here even as Texas/Oklahoma plunge deeper into drought; wildfires feared there
Precipitation distribution is rarely smooth or homogenous. There are often wide variations in the amount of moisture which falls. The situation which has unfolded across the nation's midsection this year is a striking case in point.
Drought rages across the South. Hardest hit have been Texas where the USDA is reporting 90 percent of the state "short" or "very short" of topsoil moisture---and Oklahoma where 86 percent of the state's terrain is seriously moisture deprived.
Forecasters warn the wildfire levels are dangerously high and point to Del Rio Texas' moisture plight as an example of the severity of the drought in the region. The south Texas community received only 0.31 inches of rain from October through March, the 2nd driest such period since 1906.
The drought there rages even as computer projections suggest an average of 4.46 inches of rain may fall across the Chicago area in a series of storm systems predicted in the two week period ending Wednesday, April 27.
Another powerful spring storm, predicted to drench the area with wind-driven, potentially thundery downpours, will take its time reaching Chicago. Jet stream winds, predicted to diverge in coming days into separate branches running on either side of the intensifying eastbound system, assure it is likely to only crawl along. That means its first rains are not expected fall here until Friday afternoon and night, though the northeast winds strengthening on its east side will begin showing up beneath mostly cloudy skies Thursday. By the time the approaching storm truly wrests control of Chicago's weather from the ridge of high pressure producing Wednesday's pleasant spring weather, howling east winds are predicted to lower temperatures to mid-March levels, producing Saturday highs 30 to 40-degrees shy of this past Sunday's 83-degrees.
This system could deposit 0.80 to 1.20 inches across at least sections of the Chicago area if early computer model estimates prove on target---the bulk of it to fall later Friday and Friday night. If true, the storm could be on track to become the area's heaviest rain-maker in the nearly 6 weeks since 1.11-inches fell March 4.
Planting was off to earliest start in memory on area farms just a year ago; weather being monitored carefully as 2011's planting season approaches
The new storm's progress will be watched carefully by area farmers as the Spring 2011 planting season nears. Longtime Will County farmer John Hazzard, noting the near perfect weather conditions in place a year ago, reminds us spring planting had already begun by this time in 2010. Many farmers in the Will County area were out in fields by April 10, the earliest start of any planting season in memory. In a feat only truly remarkable early season weather makes possible, the corn crop had been planted by April 28, often the date by which planting has just gotten started in past years.
Decidedly below normal temperatures being predicted over coming 2 weeks
While surges of warmth like last Sunday's, brief though they often are this early in the season, can't be completely ruled out sometime in the coming 2 weeks, the emerging pattern appears a cool one overall. Estimates of temperatures in the 1 to 5; 6 to 10 and 11 to 15 day periods ahead based on the National Weather Service's GFS model, are likely to average 6-degrees, 11-degrees and 8-degrees below normal respectively. Jarring weather shift could take Plains from Tuesday 60s to a crippling late-season snowstorm, local wind-whipped 12-inch totals possible parts of the Dakotas
While temperatures are likely to take a hit here once the new storm's
clouds, wind and rain take hold, it's sections of the Plains which appear in for the most abrupt weather changes in coming days. A flow of humid Gulf air flowing into the developing storm, could set up a corridor of heavy late-season snowfall capable of burying sections of the Dakotas under as much as 12 inches or more of snow. The late season snowstorm would come just days after the 60s reported there Tuesday.Wednesday's 60s to prove fleeting; Spring 2011 running 5.4-degrees behind a year ago but managing modest 1.6-degree surplus to date
Once Wednesday's 60s exit the Chicago area, the earliest the region might again see a 60 or higher temperature could be next Monday. It's possible, however, that winds off the lake then will prevent a reappearance of the benchmark temperature, replacing it instead with lake-cooled air adjacent to Lake Michigan.
The meteorological spring season, which began March 1, has produced temperatures 5.4-degrees behind the same period a year ago. But while cooler than 2010, the 40.1-degree average spring temperature here is still managing a modest 1.4-degree surplus.
Warm days have been in short supply compared to last year. There had been eight 70-degree or higher daytime highs by this date in 2010. By contrast, only a quarter that number of warm days---two of them---has occurred this spring. On average, three days at or above 70 have occurred by April 12 over the past 140 years.
Models continue to generate eye-catchingly high 2 week rainfall numbers here even as Texas/Oklahoma plunge deeper into drought; wildfires feared there
Precipitation distribution is rarely smooth or homogenous. There are often wide variations in the amount of moisture which falls. The situation which has unfolded across the nation's midsection this year is a striking case in point.
Drought rages across the South. Hardest hit have been Texas where the USDA is reporting 90 percent of the state "short" or "very short" of topsoil moisture---and Oklahoma where 86 percent of the state's terrain is seriously moisture deprived.
Forecasters warn the wildfire levels are dangerously high and point to Del Rio Texas' moisture plight as an example of the severity of the drought in the region. The south Texas community received only 0.31 inches of rain from October through March, the 2nd driest such period since 1906.
The drought there rages even as computer projections suggest an average of 4.46 inches of rain may fall across the Chicago area in a series of storm systems predicted in the two week period ending Wednesday, April 27.
