Tim’s Weather World: Stormy start to the week

Posted on: May 20th, 2013 7:28 AM by Tim McGill No Comments

 

( GENE BLEVINS, REUTERS / May 20, 2013 )

( GENE BLEVINS, REUTERS / May 20, 2013 )

 

It won't be a washout but the week will start out stormy at times.  Clusters of thunderstorms fueld by warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico could reach severe limits with the help of strong jet stream winds.  The Storm Prediction Center has us outlooked for a slight risk of severe weather for both today (top image below) and tomorrow (bottom image below).

 

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SPC forecasters say there is a potential for tornadoes:

 

...BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL AND A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.

There were at least 20 states this weekend that reported severe weather.  Yesterday alone there were 28 reports of tornadoes across 4 states.  That brings the total number of preliminary reports of tornadoes to 251 so far this year with 9 deaths.  While the 2013 severe weather season is getting more active it still pales in comparison to last year when 617 tornadoes were reported through May with 66 deaths.

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A center of low pressure will be moving east through Minnesota today while a warm front extends east across northern Wisconsin and the associated cold front sweeps east into Iowa. Illinois rests in the “warm sector” of this system with southerly winds pulling warm moist unstable air out of the central plains into the Midwest and western Great Lakes.

A band of showers and a few thunderstorms will work northeast through central into northern Illinois this morning with stronger – potentially severe  storms expected to develop over northeast Illinois, southeast Wisconsin, northwest Indiana into southern Lower Michigan later this afternoon into tonight.

As this weather system advances east, the cold front should sweep through the Chicago area later Tuesday. The threat of strong potentially severe storms here could carry-over from  Monday night into Tuesday morning.

In the severe weather outlook map below, much of illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin and Lower Michigan are in the slight risk areas for later today and tonight. The slight risk is approximently a 15 percent chance of damaging hail and winds in excess of 58 mph as well as a 5 percent chance of tornadoes within 25 miles of a given point.

 

 

With severe thunderstorm activity headed north into Wisconsin, the threat of additional severe weather has ended for the overnight hours across northern Illinois and Tornado Watch #187 which was to run until 3am has now been canceled.

Sunday evening's severe weather across portions of northern Illinois was just the opening round of what could be a multi-day severe weather threat. The entire Chicago Metro area remains under a slight risk of severe weather on both Monday and Tuesday. Keep up to date with the latest severe weather information on the Chicago Weather Center.

 

UPDATE:1:00 am

A thunderstorm  on the south end of the line of storms moving northeast  into southwest Wisconsin is currently strengthening near Freeport in Stephenson County. Hail and gusty wind are possible as this storm moves northeast through Stephenson County.  Other thunderstorms could bring gusty winds and some hail to north central Illinois in the next hour, but storms are expected to remain below severe criteria of 1 inch diameter hail and wind of 58 mph or higher.

 

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Shortly before 12:45 am latest radar trends confirmed that the severe thunderstorms moving out of Iowa have moved to the north-northeast into southwest Wisconsin. If this trend continues it may signify a lessening of the threat of additional severe weather across northern Illinois for the remainder of tonight. At the current time only scattered showers and thunderstorms extend from just east of the Quad Cities area into northwest Illinois.

 

Strongest storms in Wisconsin

Strongest storms in Wisconsin

 

 

 

UPDATE:11:55pm

Latest radar trends show storm heading north-northeast and may primarily affect areas from Rockford west.

 

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Current radar trends indicate line of severe thunderstorms moving north-northeast

============================================================================================================

UPDATE:11:45 pm

Storms crossing Mississippi.. severe thunderstorm warnings issued for extreme northwest Illinois..Carroll, Jo Daviess and Stephenson counties until 12:30 am.

Nickel size hail reported at Dubuque, Iowa at 11:42pm. Very heavy rain with 0.30 inches in just 10 minutes.

 

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The line of severe thunderstorms approaching the Mississippi River has produced strong winds in eastern Iowa, downing trees and knocking down power lines.

 

Wind gusts to 71 mph were clocked at Cedar Rapids and power is out in portions of Burlington. Many other reports of highs winds and damage were received from counties in eastern Iowa. These storm are expected to remain severe as they move into northwest and north central Illinois during the early morning hours of Monday and Tornado watch #187 remains in effect until 3am.

 

 

  The line of thunderstorm crossing the Mississippi River could bring some
damaging winds as it passes. Though diminished, a threat of tornadoes
still exists and Tornado Watch #187 remains in effect until 3am for
portions of northwest and north central Illinois as well as adjacent
areas in southern Wisconsin.
Damaging winds possible with approaching squall line.

Damaging winds possible with approaching squall line.

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0720
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1058 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-SRN WI / ERN IA / NRN AND W-CNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 185...187...

   VALID 200358Z - 200500Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 185...187...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A LARGELY ISOLD DMGG WIND THREAT WILL CEASE CONCURRENT
   WITH PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE FROM WEST TO EAST.

   DISCUSSION...AN EXTENSIVE NORTH TO SOUTH SQUALL LINE WITH SEVERAL
   BOWING INFLECTIONS --LIKELY SIGNALING ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
   WIND DAMAGE-- WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER THE MID-UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  ALTHOUGH SOME BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION
   HAS OCCURRED DUE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING...THE STEEP LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT SAMPLED BY THE 00Z DVN RAOB WOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT THE
   POSSIBILITY FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS.  ANY LIMITED TORNADO THREAT WILL
   LIKELY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN NON-ZERO GIVEN THE STRONG LOW
   LEVEL WIND PROFILE.  COUNTIES CAN BE CLEARED FROM TORNADO WATCH 187
   FROM WEST TO EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH SQUALL LINE PASSAGE.

 

UPDATE 10:55pm

The tornado watch will remain in effect until 3am CDT Monday morning for the following counties..

Boone, DeKalb, Winnebago LaSalle, Lee, Ogle,.

 

The tornado watch has been canceled for Kane, Kendall and McHenry counties and is no longer in effect.

============================================================================================================

The first wave of thunderstorms has moved through north central Illinois into southern Wisconsin and quiet weather rukes for the moment across the area. However a tornado watch #187 remain in effect until 3am for portions of n northern Illinois just to the west of the immediate Chicago area. Another line of strong to severe thunderstorms is approaching the Mississippi River from Iowa and if these storms maintain their strength could move into the areas under the tornado watch in the early morning hours of Monday.

 

Next thunderstorm area to arrive well after midnight

Next thunderstorm area to arrive well after midnight

Another storm damage report

Posted on: May 19th, 2013 10:46 PM by Steve Kahn No Comments

 

Here is a late damage report from the severe thunderstorms that moved through north central Illinois and adjacent Wisconsin area including the Rockford and Beloit areas around 9pm this evening. There were many reports of large hail and damaging winds as the storms passed through. A severe thunderstorm warning was issued for the north and west portions of the immediate Chicago Metro area, but that has canceled as the storm weakened.

 

Tree through the roof of a home between Beloit and Afton Wisconsin

 

 

Severe thunderstorms that raked portions of north central Illinois with high winds and hail this evening are now showing a weakening trend as they move across northwest portions of the Chicago Metro area.

The hail producing cores of these storms have shown a marked decrease in intensity.  The severe thunderstorm warning that was in effect until 10:15 pm has been canceled.

 

A tornado watch does remain in effect for portions of north central Illinois and the west and northwest portions of the Chicago Metro area until 3am CDT Monday morning.

 

Tornado watch #187 valid until 3am

Tornado watch #187 valid until 3am

More storm reports

Posted on: May 19th, 2013 9:08 PM by Steve Kahn No Comments

 

Power lines down in the Rockton area around 9pm. Power poles leaning from high winds.  Shredded branches everywhere

Half dollar size hail (1.25 inch diameter ) reported in Rockford at 9:00 pm